Finance

Mid-Cap Fund Outlook: Q2 2026 Commentary

In the second quarter of 2026, major U.S. equity indices demonstrated robust positive returns, primarily fueled by a significant resurgence in the information technology sector and other artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks. This period was characterized by investors continuing to assess the broader economic implications of various market forces. The robust performance of AI-centric companies, such as Allegro MicroSystems, played a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics. Conversely, JBS shares experienced a downturn, influenced by pressures in the North American beef industry, where a scarcity of cattle and elevated livestock expenses negatively impacted processor profitability.

Looking ahead, the investment landscape presents a blend of opportunities and risks. The continuing evolution of AI infrastructure is expected to create new avenues for growth, alongside select prospects within the aerospace and infrastructure sectors. However, potential headwinds include a deceleration in AI capital expenditures, persistent consumer spending weakness, and the possibility of renewed disruptions in energy markets. The fund's strategy involves maintaining exposure to the burgeoning AI infrastructure while also seeking out undervalued, non-consensus stocks that may have been unfairly penalized by recent sector rotations, thereby balancing growth potential with an emphasis on value.

Market Performance and Sector Trends

During the second quarter of 2026, U.S. equity markets experienced a significant upswing, with major indices recording strong positive returns. This surge was predominantly driven by a powerful rebound within the information technology sector, alongside other equities linked to artificial intelligence. Investors, throughout the early part of the quarter, were actively analyzing the broader market implications, with a particular focus on how technological advancements and AI's rapid growth would continue to influence various industries. This period underscored the increasing importance of innovation and the transformative potential of AI in shaping economic outcomes.

The impressive performance was largely attributable to companies at the forefront of AI development and infrastructure. Firms involved in semiconductor manufacturing and advanced integrated circuits saw their valuations climb, reflecting investor confidence in their long-term growth prospects. However, not all sectors shared in this prosperity. The North American beef industry, for instance, faced considerable challenges. A tightening supply of cattle, coupled with rising livestock costs, significantly hampered the profitability of processors, leading to a lagging performance for companies like JBS within the equity market. This divergence highlights the selective nature of market rallies and the varied impacts of economic pressures across different sectors.

Investment Strategy and Future Outlook

The Carillon Scout Mid Cap Fund's investment strategy is meticulously designed to navigate dynamic market conditions by identifying both emerging opportunities and potential risks. A core component of this strategy involves maintaining a strategic exposure to the rapidly expanding AI infrastructure sector. This focus is driven by the belief that advancements in AI will continue to generate substantial growth, particularly in areas where existing bottlenecks are being addressed, thereby creating new market segments and enhanced efficiencies. Additionally, the fund is exploring attractive prospects within the aerospace and infrastructure industries, which are poised for growth due to various global and domestic factors.

However, the fund's forward-looking approach also acknowledges several pertinent risks. There is a keen awareness of the potential for a slowdown in AI capital expenditures, which could temper the growth trajectory of related companies. Concerns about consumer spending weakness, a persistent economic challenge, remain a key area of monitoring, as this can impact broad market sentiment and corporate earnings. Furthermore, the possibility of renewed disruptions in energy markets poses another significant risk, given its potential to influence inflation and production costs across industries. To mitigate these risks and capitalize on opportunities, the fund is deliberately seeking out non-consensus stocks that, despite having strong fundamentals, may have been undervalued or unfairly impacted by recent sector rotations, aiming to achieve a balanced portfolio that combines growth potential with intrinsic value.